Though the room, and the Q&A period, was more-or-less-choked by reporters fishing (poorly!) for process stories, some really interesting things got said.
Most notable was that General Wardak specifically indicated that he thought that the insurgency was "primarily urban, [though] supplemented by a modified Maoist rural insurgency." (emphasis added) This departs from the emerging conventional wisdom on Afghanistan-Pakistan, which is that it is a primarily rural insurgency. There are three ways to spin this:
1. He just doesn't know what he's talking about. - Unlikely. He's very widely respected in Afghanistan.
2. He considers the real challenge ("Center of gravity" to military folks) to be urban centers in southern Afghanistan, or even in the FATA region of Pakistan, with the rural areas a symptom of the problem. - More likely, but still out of congruence with analyses by Kilcullen, etc, much less academic literature like Libby Wood's Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador*
3. He was specifically signaling the possibility of reconciliation with individuals who don't threaten the urban core, i.e. by implying that they are not really "the enemy," and can be negotiated with. If true, then the idea of "defining down" war aims -which, to be fair, he did disagree with in his speech- may become the implicit consequence of our strategy there.
Why do I think it's the 3rd option? Well, as Spencer Ackerman alludes to -man, is he a posting machine or what- the new Afghan local militia program is going to be used to secure Highway 1 from Kabul to Herat. While, yes, controlling the cities and the roads are key for any military plan, this is starting to look a lot like the 1970s-style tribal autonomy for rural areas, combined with strong control over urban areas and the key roads.
Oh, one more thing, which probably fully descends into crazy speculation: better security on the road from Kabul to Herat would allow for resupply through Herat if logistics through Pakistan continues to fall apart. Herat, of course, is just over the border from Iran...
* Full disclosure - she advised my senior essay
re #2 see also paul richards on sierra leone (post-fighting for the rainforest, although that as well)
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