Wednesday, April 29, 2009

For God, For Country, and For....?

As you probably know by now, Tom Ricks of CNAS has kicked off a major discussion about the value of the service academies versus others means of commissioning students who attend public or private colleges, such as ROTC or OCS.

In some ways, this discussion is not only logical, but long overdue. The rise of COIN theory out of academic obscurity to political and strategic prominence has reminded people of how important intellectual firepower is, and how important flexibility in warfare is. At the same time, COIN warfare rewards giving commanders freedom to make smart local decisions, while democratizing the diffusion of expertise and knowledge amongst officers, regardless of commissioning source. Meanwhile, many universities, including most Ivies, don't allow ROTC on campus, and there's a huge desire to bring that back. 

However, I think Mr. Ricks isn't considering a bunch of objections to his argument that revolve around the fact that both the military, and academia, are complex social institutions. These objections fall into two major categories: "This is what happens to any academic institution"  and "Centralization has a purpose." 

Anyone who spends even a few hours listening to faculty members complain about their colleagues and departmental politics knows how important money is, and how likely it is that money is being spent unwisely. And there are easy academic routes to take at West Point? So too there are at other universities, and we all know people who BS their way through. And there are professors that don't care about educating their students exist in the Ivies as well, and prefer to focus on their side projects. Apples and apples, here. 

Similarly on the funding question, departments continue to grow to the limits of the funds provided. At the alma mater that I share with Mr. Ricks, the 4-year tuition, room and board cost is north of $160K, but that's only the external cost charged to the students and their families. The endowment kicks in far several times as much money per pupil, both to cover day-to-day operating costs and to improve facilities. So we end up with a total internal cost number in the same range as the very broad numbers being thrown about to discuss the service academies, without Yale having to pay the costs of deploying them as temporary third lieutenants, expending ammunition, providing facility security, etc, etc, etc.

In other words, yes, it costs more than other commissioning routes, but to do an academy at all requires this amount of funds. What reason, then, is there for the service academies? Why centralize the education of a significant portion of officers in these hulking campuses on crags or swamps? It may surprise you to know that scientific opinion now informs us that the appendix, rather than being purely useless, also acts as a reservoir of important immune system information. Schools are much the same way.

First, having academies produces a powerful incentive to keep around active-duty officers who think long and hard about the same problems for a long time, to a degree not possible in the military in general. Even if you assume that Ricks' preferred alternative results in a greater number of better-educated officers, there's no certainty that those officers will keep their intellectual skillsets fresh to the same degree as officers who get to be in the classroom. This is particularly true, I suspect, given that classrooms face these thinkers every day with the questions of cadets. This unparalleled opportunity for confrontation in a hierarchical military may force officer-teachers to rethink first principles in a way they otherwise would not. 

Think of it this way: General Petraeus pulled much of his staff directly out of the West Point Social Science faculty, as Ricks acknowledges. There are other Ph.Ds in the Army, and lots of graduates of the war colleges, and lots of former Army think-tankers, too. Why did he pick the people he did?  How much is a well-executed Surge worth to the American taxpayer, in terms of West Point operating budget-years?

I also wonder if the prestige effect of service academies may paradoxically allow for more change than would otherwise occur. If teaching of army values was more diffuse, then army culture could easily become beholden to no one and difficult to alter systematically, spread as it would be across ROTC, OCS, PLC; a large number of sites and a variety of training programs. By contrast, the prestige of the academies allows for values  and ideas to be quickly inculcated in a large batch of future officers, for good, or as Mr. Ricks rightly points out, for ill. 

Similarly, I wonder if it might allow for more dissent, both by academy graduates and their instructors. The seal of approval that an academy offers its graduates means that it's harder to accuse a reformer or dissenter of being unmilitary in their values or beliefs; at the same time, the responsibility for teaching cadets well allows for instructors to make broader and more pressing claims about what is being taught, and how, than might occur otherwise. This can cut both ways - consider how effective Gian Gentile has been at arguing for his position, in part because of his status as a leading and respected member of the West Point academic community.

Second, I'm highly skeptical of the claim that the promotion system, or evaluations by superiors alone, can capture all of the relevant data as to whether service academies produce better officers. For example, I would love to see an analysis of the effectiveness of service academy graduates at training Iraqi and Afghan security forces on land, and at conducting joint exercises and knowledge transfer in the air and sea realms. It seems plausible to me that cadets who trained in a highly-hierarchical environment where they had to teach their juniors military discipline, skills, etc, might well be particularly good as officers at training missions by comparison to others who did not have to do so for the same length or to the same degree in OCS (ROTC I don't know enough about to meaningfully say - Yale lacks it). It's a commonly repeated (albeit unproven) complaint that success in those fields does not correlate with promotions or positive evaluations; if that's the case, then Mr. Ricks' reports from the field wouldn't capture that highly-vital factor, or other similar and relevant data.

Finally, suppose that Ricks' conclusion gets backed up by a series of major studies, and it really does cost more to run service academies, and it really doesn't produce better individual soldiers.  That doesn't mean that DoD, as a system, does not benefit tremendously from having service academy graduates. It may well be that there is a tremendous value to the personnel system of knowing that a standardized product of roughly X officers per year, who are guaranteed to know A, B, and C within the following long-established statistical bounds, will be commissioned on a date certain. I imagine this is much more difficult to do with ROTC and OCS, where so much relies upon local recruitment and organization.

Does any one of these reasons suffice to justify a service academy? Not necessarily. But the data is as yet really shaky, and these factors aren't being considered, which should fill anyone expressing strong opinions on the topic with great caution. 


Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Random discovery of the day

Mac OS X's built-in dictionary function knows the words "shtick" and "mensch."

Monday, April 27, 2009

The Pomocon Manifest

Would you like to read a manifesto that combines the obsessive referentiality of philosophy with the inscrutable organizational scheme of the tax code? IF SO, the pomocons have just the manifesto for you.

This frustrates me, because the basic idea behind the pomocons is much easier to say, and farmore interesting: They're people who want to believe in tradition and doctrine, and let those ideas have powerful force in their lives, even though - or especially because -  they know that these beliefs are constructed and not quite true. But the traditions that they want to maintain often deny the possibility of change or revision. Pomocons are trying to square that circle, usually from a (pseudo-) Christian perspective that doesn't have enough flexibility in the directions they need. 

See, wasn't that easy?


Sunday, April 26, 2009

No Reservations

Jon Stewart had an absolutely hilarious clip on Thursday about Congressmen freaking out about the possibility of the US signing treaties that it's never ever going to sign with impossible threatened consequences, like the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child making it illegal for you to take your child to church, or fictional treaties creating a one world currency:



One thing worth noting about the US refusal to sign certain treaties is actually more honest than many countries' practices. Ever wonder how North Korea, Iran, or Turkmenistan are signatories to certain treaties, like maybe conventions on human rights? Well, countries can sign treaties with "reservations," which basically are a list of caveats to the binding power (such as it is) of the treaty. Saudi Arabia usually reserves "except as conflicts with sharia," and other nations pick their own reservations for philosophical or parochial reasons. The United States reserves "except as affects national security or the Constitution" all the time, even on treaties intended to prevent genocide.

Even if a crazy treaty did get signed by the US, it'd almost certainly include such reservations. But Congressmen don't mention this, and the news media doesn't call them on it. Oy.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Iraqi Food Update

How did I miss this? There's an Iraqi restaurant in NYC now. The Chowhound entry has mixed reviews, but it confirms that they serve tishreb laham. The NYTimes entry is relatively vague, but atmospherically appealing. A mandatory visit the next time I'm in NYC

The Question's No One's Asking

Over the past few days, there's been a tremendous amount of discussion about the prudential value of prosecuting torturers, and perhaps their legal advisers as well. The New York Times has even advocated that now-Judge Jay Bybee should be impeached for his role as lead drafter of the legal memos in question. 

In a variety of places, people have alluded to, or even stated explicitly, what one might call the Nuremberg Rule that following orders is no excuse for crimes, especially war crimes. I support that standard, and nothing that follows should be at all taken as an argument against that.

But we do need to recognize that there's a problem here: people whose very jobs are secret probably have trouble getting third-party legal advice. They're usually not lawyers, so they probably don't have the knowledge to see how one-sided and ineffectual the arguments presented are. I've read memos that led to lawyers being disbarred that were less dishonest in their presentation of relevant case law and argument.

When we put patriotic people in conditions where we tell them it's necessary, ordered, and legal, it's simply hard for anyone, regardless of character, not to trust in that legal claim. This is particularly true when the very act seems shocking to the conscience. Of course most of us would naturally believe that such an act would only be ordered, could only be ordered, if it was legal and utterly necessary to keep your country safe. 

So how do we make it possible for people who work in a secret world to get actual, proper legal advice? 

I'm not a lawyer, but my understanding is that the laws covering classification mean that they can't usually talk to outside counsel, even under the seal of attorney-client privilege. I also strongly suspect that the interrogators involved won't have the ability to sue the lawyers who gave that advice. The list of privileges that apply, such as state secrets, sovereign immunity, the fact that they weren't representing the interrogators, and, oh yeah, that one of them is a judge now, makes it pretty hard for the people who willingly followed that advice to gain redress. Overall, those rules make sense in the context of broader law. 

But these problems arose in a state of exception. If the facts are as they have been presented so far, we need a means for individuals in classified situations to get independent legal counsel. Even if you think that these interrogators should have been able to make this decision on their own, the fact is simply that it didn't happen enough. Having lawyers they could check with, that would not quash lingering doubts, but rather consider them genuinely and render an impartial opinion, would increase the likelihood that people would refuse illegal orders. Not being in that profession, I have no clue what such a legal capability would look like, but it sure seems necessary.*

If you believe that torture's wrong, don't just condemn it, or its advocates. Try to find a way to make it much harder in the future.

*As is broader oversight, greater focus on these issues in confirmation hearings, legal reforms, etc. 

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Some Western camp (I know the Pict) or granite border keep


[A]n experienced cadre of officers and senior enlisted soldiers, who would rotate between assignments in Afghanistan and at their home stations until the end of hostilities. 

By doing so, the Pentagon hopes to end a problem that has plagued the effort in Afghanistan—the lack of familiarity with local conditions by U.S. forces who rotate in and then depart after a year, just when they are beginning to understand the area or the mission where they are assigned. 

“These would be small groups who would deploy together for shorter periods, going back and forth to the same place and the same mission again and again, so they would know the culture and the terrain,” said a senior Pentagon official briefed on the plan, who said the teams could be asked to conduct training or other specialized counterinsurgency missions.
 


This is a good idea, overall. We don't have enough local knowledge built up, and having the same people return to the area later can certainly act as a form of proof that our promises to and relationships with locals last longer than a single tour. 

But I also wonder about the possible downsides as well. How can we make sure that units don't develop the "Not-Invented-Here" syndrome, either in terms of intelligence evaluations of their own battlespace or in terms of bringing over new techniques from other areas? Sometimes this will make sense; Korengal's is different from northern Afghanistan is different from Helmand, etc. Sometimes, the accretion of assumptions and practices will be problematic. (Don't get me wrong, the US Army and Marines have had to learn new tactics and operational techniques, been challenged by enemy adaptation, and responded with throwing it all away and learning it all again with aplomb. Not saying that local commands can't, or even largely won't, do that. Just that it's something to keep in mind.)

Additionally, God forbid this happens, but if it gets adapted as a general practice, in this or some future war we may have a lot of Afghan COIN experts in US ranks just as the same time as we get involved in another country where the insurgency has wildly different organization and tactics. (Yes, Dr. Gentile's critique of FM 3-24 as being too focused on beating Maoists probably has a point to it...) Remember, some British troops who fought in Malaya also fought in Kenya, with rather different results...

Similarly, what will ensure that our soldiers don't develop (unconscious and wholly human) bias towards the parochial concerns of locals that sticks with them in future higher-level commands in the same country? This is probably to some extent unavoidable, and not necessarily a bad thing, but how do we avoid people going 
too native?

On the more academic side, what's the smart training cycle for the returning cadre while they're stateside? Repeated visits means a higher ROI on additional, area-specific training. Do we push localized language and cultural education at them (or, heck, PRT-complementary training by sending them to learn about agriculture, road construction, whatever)?

Finally, this is going to be a brilliantly useful data set for comparative study, so long as someone keeps track of it. I really hope that RAND, Booz Allen, etc, as well as the pure academic sector, get in on the ground floor. A Minerva Project grant devoted to this would be a smart call.

(Crossposted as a comment on Abu Muqawama)